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Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Hmmm...

HNZ closed one penny above previous 52 week high. Technicals still bullish. Can it move -up - another 9-plus percent in the next 14 trading days?

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Tide goes out, tide comes in

HNZ touched 52 week high today before retreating. T minus 16.5 days.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

God never listens to what I say

T minus 17 trading days until bye-bye money. Was I right or was I wrong? Tick tock tick tock.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Heinz

HNZ. Bullish continuation wedge. Bullish MACD, RSI, Stochastics. Treading on top of 13-day MA. Miserly range lately, even in this week's market. Forty five cents yesterday, twenty five cents today. Terrible trade or something's afoot. Looking for a breakout by my calculations. Cramer suggested divesting the frozen food albatross the other night. Buyout premiums have been 40% lately. That's $77 a share or $23.4B. Worth it? PEP? KFT? UL? Bueller? BUELLER?!

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Giddyup

DIA and SPY uptrends remain intact; QQQ looks less appealing but could show a shakeout before it breaks out. Futures pointing higher. Maybe tomorrow's the day to make some hay. Still expecting strong upward follow through.

Friday, July 13, 2012

My Most Sincere Apologies

I believe I proclaimed a gap up. How wrong. I also said 1.6%. Wrong again. The Dow and S&P ended up 1.62% and 1.65%, respectively. Close though. Oh, and that whole Nasdaq a laggard? Up 1.48%. Next week could be a good one.

Getting closer...

Why it is imperative the SPY and DIA move above 135.50 and 127.50, respectively.
Why the QQQ isn't as ripe.
And how all three have a tailwind.






Thursday, July 12, 2012

Reason for My Optimism

Bullish MACD, recent 52 week high, stochastics still drifting on high side. Trading above daily trend lines, finding support at hourly intervals. Looking for bullish stochastics and top side follow through similar to what's been seen with KO, CHD, WMT, CL... Looking for 1.6% gap up in the indices one of these mornings.

That funny feeling again

Next trade is on. Starting to think I may never see that money again. Did lots of analysis... may not matter. Today I can place a specific dollar amount on patience. Expire August 17. What is going for me is there is a method to my madness and it has been reliable. That plus I think the market is absorbing the reality of tough love and is ready to break again to the upside. What I don't need is any more PIGS. How about some good news? Contrary to the crises. Some reason for the indices to take off. Jeez.

Up, up and away

Despite the current futures direction, my charts suggest buying here. I have no open positions at the moment but thought I'd share my opinion for the record. What I am looking at, very closely, is going long FDX, UL, AFL, OMI and UVV or short BEAM. QQQ and DIA look similarly bullish hence my buy rating on the market. Critical to these successes is a strong imminent upside reversal. I would then play the follow through.
My target is low price options with minimal premiums. Finding these nuggets associated with higher price underlying stocks yields greater opportunity for strong returns. A $0.25 option gets 10x the gain with a $50 stock than with a $5 stock given identical percentage moves. And, obviously, a $0.25 option at or near the strike price multiplies a lot easier than a deeper in the money $2.50 call. The trick is not getting the move wrong. I now employ daily and hourly technical analysis. And when the iron is hot I monitor the minute by minute ticks before striking. Every penny counts.

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Go on take the money and run

I had to remind myself today NOT to get greedy. With ITW trading near recent lows at $50.35, I sold my $50 puts for $0.65 after paying $0.20 for them late last week. Next trade is not on yet, as I wasn't about to step in front of the Bernanke train. I'll be patient, looking for my next opportunity. I've so far returned close to 1000% in I think less than 2 weeks.

Monday, July 09, 2012

Tread Light and Carry a Big Stick

Big stick? Check. Tread light? Definitely getting there. Another bum trade on the horizon with not a lot of time to wait it out. Caution tomorrow. And a quick trigger. The trend is your friend. Until the trend is over. And quickly.

Saturday, July 07, 2012

Get Back on the Train

No thanks to Greece, I had to lick my wounds after my BAC call trade went south. Made 300+ percent gains in last few days with CL calls. That trade is now closed. New trade is on. Short. Job numbers were disappointing (shocker) but not bad enough for Bernanke to have to step in. Current trade worked today. Added new layer of technical analysis to repertoire. We'll see what Monday brings. Can't wait. Until then...