Insult to Injury

I forgot to thank the market makers. Now 4 days after expiry my calls would be +2000% or so. Free markets my ass.

Somewhat Agitated

Couldn't help but check the latest SAM quote. My bullish call was right... they just expired 7 hours too early. Thanks Eurotrash girl.

Lesson #2 Always take the money

Greed kills! Up 300% in a week and I wanted more. Dummy. Moreover, that experiment with boxes is over. Back to the original recipe.

Downtrend Intact - Caution, Do Not Step on Tracks

MACD and RSI need to break through trendlines and push these lines through the bottom of their channels... then I'll buy. 13 week MA itself now broken through key support.

Inexcusable mistake

Since last week, through the time I'd sold my September LO calls today at a small loss, I was certain that the strike price was $110. Silly me, when I looked at my trade status, they were the $105 calls. Unnecessary heartburn the whole time thinking they had to rally 5% by the end of trading tomorrow or expire COMPLETELY worthless. Could have cut my losses in half just by waiting the day out... and therein lies the rub with imminent option expirations: one pullback and there's no time to recover. Haven't decided whether or not to buy another month or two out. LO is definitely in an uptrend... the question is how long this consolidation will last. How can you not be interested in a stock like this or even IBM when they trade over $100 per share and the implied value is within $1 of the underlying equity. One long candle can pay off nice. With my luck, tomorrow's the day for LO. On the bright side, I still have more capital than I did when I started my program up again. Onward and upward... no stupid mistakes.

Divergence

 13-week crossed below 200-day and pushing a triple bottom... same highs and lows... range bound... which way will it break?

13-week holding above the 200-day... higher highs and higher lows... hmmm...

Lorillard (LO)

Classic launchpad set-up... took off to multi-year highs, tested the 200-day, shoot back up over the 13-week, ready for a nice run... hope the September calls give me enough time to make significant headway. Still long SVU... looking for a gap-up over the 13-week moving average.

30 Minute SVU Chart

30- and 60-Minute Charts Suggest SVU Pop is Imminent

SSIA. Finally had Silverlight installed. Ran the numbers prior to that... I suspect it could be a private equity takeout candidate. Debt load is no worse than Kroger's, with more cash per share (a whopping dime) than either Kroger or Safeway. SVU trading at approx 0.75x EBIDTA vs. peers trading at 2.5-3.5x EBIDTA. If someone can work out the margins they shoud realize a hefty profit in relatively short order. Just a guess.

SuperValu pops back above key level

When I started accumulating SVU prior to the latest collapse, I was prepared to watch it test the bottom again at $7.06.  I admit I was disheartened to see it drop like a rock through that level.  However, it bottomed at $6.68 both yesterday and today before rocketing back up through the $7.06 level to close at $7.14 today.  Now it only yields 4.9% as a $1.5B company generating $37B in revenues.  And if I remember correctly, it had $3.5B in inventory to end the latest quarter.  Not obsolete microchips mind you, but food stuffs.  I contend that in an economy like this, their business means much more to a lot more folks than gold itself.

Opportunity in PAY, OPEN

A quick glance at a long term chart for either shows this pullback could be a great entry for a couple of high fliers.. LULU looks similar but more iffy. Continue to be intrigued by UL.

Strength in Supervalu

Been building a large position in Supervalu (SVU) over the last couple of weeks.  MACD has broken the downtrend.  The 65-day moving average had been crossed and is still moving upwards.  We shall see. 

Dear Mr. President

I don't remember if I've expressed these opinions previously, but the ideas resurfaced while driving my wife to work as we listened to the CBS Evening News and their coverage of the final launch of Atlantis and the subsequent end to America's space program. I find it poignant that the story shared the day's news with yet another disappointing jobs report. in short, a highly significant percentage of modern technologies have emerged from a mosaic of Scientific rigor, a commitment to innovation,and the drive to make America the leader it had become. Aviation, atomic weaponry, the space race... all have spawned entire industries. What America needs is our next mission, to unify, dig down deep, and propel America back to the the cutting edge. I believe this sensibility is blind to political persuasion. More importantly, higher taxes and eliminating technological muscle cannot be good. Likewise, sustaining capable citizens on government handouts has never worked as a motivator.

On the move...

XLF, XLI, XLB, XLE losing steam. However XLP, XLU, XLV all breaking out. Names in particular include BMY, JNJ, MRK, AMGN, KFT, PEP. EXC appears to be waking up. Nothing imminent as far as spikes higher, but I would be accumulating on pullbacks. Others to keep an eye on as they are setting up include AKAM, LOGI, RIMM and CNX.

How it all started

My first posts... what a newb!

Back in the saddle

First off, Happy 1st Birthday to my boys! Having just read Michael Ashbaugh's latest column I came to realize Carbo Ceramics now trades in the $150-160 range... so I had to find that damn post I'd made about it a while back. In going through my posts, I think I made a fair number of bad calls (although I'd have saved you about 5% within the next couple of days), one really bad call (although the MACD is currently showing impending weakness), and plenty of good calls. I think my system works. Time that's passed has only confirmed it. It'll take more time (and capital - money begets money) to continue the growth, and I've learned even more lessons. I'll tease with this: Options that expire worthless suck, ESPECIALLY when stock prices soar two days AFTER they expire... 'Damn it, I was RIGHT!!" Until next time...