Making new strides

Hey-doo there neighborinos! OK, so I'm on 'roids to get past this poison ivy outbreak. I'm a little nuts this week. I've been blaring the radio stuck in traffic at 6:30 every morning this week. But I'm not complaining about having the energy of my younger years back albeit for a brief while! Anyway, I've been thinking about my plans. I'm not nuts enough to scratch them, but I've had a voracious appetite for working up charts the last few days.
Here are my thoughts:
I looked at a lot of oil stocks today. Exploration, production, servicing, refining. I couldn't find one that had much more upward potential. This move has been made and is already out of breath. Tops are being revisited on low volume. The OIH needs Friday's volume to exceed 20 million or so - roughly doubling it's volume for the week so far - to even touch the last three weeks totals. Why is gas at the pumps so ridiculous? Because the gas retailers know they' d better get what they can while the gettin's good. Oil is heading south. It's lost it's mojo. Barring any extraordinary circumstances re: 'geopolitical stability'.
I like the materials. Particularly the bling. I find the diversification of BHP and AAUK to be quite interesting. I like AAUK's chart - even more if it holds near 28. There's a mad dash to plunder the earth for all she's got to supply civilization's extreme makeover. Gold, copper, aluminum, iron, coal... diamonds, platinum, uranium. Get it while you can!
But before all that, me must begin at the beginning. We need capital to invest. Or at least I need more. I want so bad to be greedy, but in a great way. I want enough money that if I see an investment to be had - a small time player with a great niche and a wide moat and a great reputation for quality, I can just buy up shares to my hearts content. And I like a lot of stories. But that's for a later time.
Here's my plan: Phase One: Low risk capital accumulation.
I' following a handful of stocks that do absolutely NOTHING but run in place and have a relative history of driving in their lanes. First Horizon. National City. TCF Financial. Three banks ranging in size from $3.5-20B in market cap, with PEs no higher than 16 and yields no lower than 3.5%. Here's a chart of one year of closing prices. Generally 5-10% compounded monthly without too much uniformity - ie, when one is up, one is down, and the third is somewhere in between. Getting in and out might keep me busy, but I'd like to think it's worth it. I'll let you know how it goes. Until then,

Being smart - or at least thinking you are - can have it's disadvantages. In my case, I've developed the capacity to assume I was right at every level of analysis. In trying to decipher the movement of prices before the move is made, I've found meaning in the simpler signs and symptoms of a company's stock valuation - being able to identify strength and conviction, and therefore supply and demand - as a measure of the moment. A moment is an indefinitely short but precise point in time. On Wall St., this length of time has been shortened from months to minutes. The trading of these 'pieces of paper' has turned them into just that. Every stockholder is now there own middleman. Unfortunately, most everyone is now playing the same hand of cards, each trying to convince themselves that they are right. In fact very few will win. That's why I believe it's imperative to keep it simple, use common sense, and not overanalyze. Just for the fun of it, I have a tendency to listen to the radio trading shows on the AM dial. I listen on the way to and from work. And I hear the same stocks mentioned on very show day after day after day after day. They're always the flavor of the month with the huge volumes, and people are worried about when to get in and out to make the most money on a $15 stock gyrating $0.20 in a day. I always wonder what beautiful beach these billionaires are sunning themselves on when they call the show - nevermind the talk show theorists! Are they being fed grapes while doing the show? I believe most any strategy will make you some amount of money in due time so long as you have a half a brain. I used to do some research on every stock I ever heard mentioned anywhere. But if a guy like me is getting the word of mouth, the moment has passed. If I'd never heard about a company from my own experiences, I'd never would've known about it in the first place!
The three pillars of my universe lay in innovation, exclusivity, and sustainability. If a company has none of these attributes, the buck stops there. I've focused on the industries that I know best and on the companies that have or will have some impact on my life. I'll introduce them to you next time. Don't worry - it won't be another three months. In the meantime, I'm continuing my strategy to be patient and follow my convictions. Eventually I will build large positions in each of the stocks to be mentioned next time, each at precisely the right moment - when they're on sale! Until then...