"I've changed my ways just a bit since I lance posted here. Not so much for new year resolutions, just a refinement of my tactics. I have become more patient. Case in point: almost giving in to the pain of buying MWRK at $44 and watching it sink down to $38. I felt the pain, but held on to my convictions relating to both the fundamentals (see my previous posts) as well as the technicals. I learned from my CNX debacle that it's not a good idea to sell when the stochastics, RSI, and the WilliamsR are bottoming simultaneously. Subsequently, MWRK rallied back up over $42 on Friday on an analyst upgrade, thereby cutting my losses by a third. I'll see how it plays out in the next couple of weeks, as the action shored up some longer term technical support I was looking for. I also think Powerwave is ready to take off. My analysis shows a confirmed bottom, and the stock has been building strength for several months and has shown some signs of life in the last couple of weeks. I am losing my patience with Carter's Inc. though. It will either find support at current levels or drop down to retest the low $20s. Technically it can go either way, so I'll have to watch it very carefully. Otherwise I'll take my loss (bought at $28) and move on. It's my own fault. A bottom has not been confirmed and the business model is unexciting. I think Children's Place has better clothes for older kids - brighter colors, hipper styles - but Carter's dominates retail children's departments, especially the newborn segment. Both are strong brands, but they seem susceptible to competition - especially Children's Place, what with Old Navy and Gap Kids. I haven't studied the balance sheets too hard (OK, not at all) but I think either Carter's or MWRK could be a takeover target eventually. I think MWRK has the opportunity to expand globally as well. OK, I also bought some Ford. Another tremendous brand. Right after I did we found out that Mullaly went to Japan to talk to Toyota. I could think of some synergies - specifically: Ford needs to get some fuel efficient technology into their vehicles (Hello Toyota!), but more importantly, Toyota needs to expand capacity to meet growing demand, and Ford has lots and lots of manpower and manufacturing resources in need of work. A turnaround play, but the fact Bill Ford had the meatballs to swallow his pride and find a better person for the job than himself shows the commitment to making the right moves."
I wrote that January 6 of this year. I've come to learn (read: understand) more and more. I've done lots and lots of technical research and honed my skills... hasn't helped me with PWAV, though. Still holding on at a loss... want my money back! (Rule No. 1 - Don't lose money; Rule #2 - See Rule No. 1) Building strength a lot slower than I thought. Had the right idea getting out of CRI and especially MWRK when I did. It really does come down to basics.
Buy what you know; companies you know, preferably companies you know are doing good business. Buy them, but buy them when they're cheap. Dividends are acceptable. So I bought Pfizer.
Once I get my money out of PWAV, I'm eyeing these stocks:
CSCO D ED GE LTD NI NST SAM SOV
Pickings are slim here, but these are poised for a strong 2007 - technically speaking. Will have to share my ideas... if they work and I'm rich someday.
Ciao for now.
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