Had some free time this morning. As of this moment, I say this is your last chance to buy:
Johnson & Johnson at 66.50
Procter & Gamble at 62.25
Sprint at 17.22
I would also consider accumulating Ford at 8 and buying on the dips.
We'll se how these picks pan out... and how quick.
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Mulligan
It's been a while since I last posted, so I thought I'd check in. I've learned about a couple of lessons the hard way. I did a lot of thinking, and I've dug my trenches a little bit deeper. I held onto CNX until - you guessed it - pretty much the bottom. At that point I was so in the hole, I figured I couldn't take any more and should just take what I had and start trying to make it back up. Since then, it's bounced back to where I could've trimmed about 80% of my losses. I learned that if a sector is really, really out of favor, no matter how short a period of time, get out of the way. Energy and coal were out of favor just long enough to reduce my largest position by almost 20% in about 2 weeks. NOBODY wanted it. I learned that to panic is to surrender. A lead ball surely must bounce at little if it's dropped from high enough. I learned that I had no knowledge whatsoever about energy, especially coal. I learned that long term support trumps short term support any day of the week.
As a result, I've had time now to recollect myself. The balance of risk-reward is delicate, and patience for good entry and exit points can double the reward. Knowing more about a company's business than it's ticker symbol is imperative. Good companies will be on sale from time to time (and just as often be overvalued) but they will always eventually behave properly and correct themselves. I'm interested in undervalued, or oversold, devations from the norm. As such, I've also reviewed my technical analysis strategy.
Using it I've noted Tyson Chicken and Briggs & Stratton positioning for an upward move, although I have no position in either. I did reenter First Horizon, as I think that consolidation is coming to an end. Something about the high quality of their loans... an their 4.5% yield. I bought some EnCana here, as I couldn't help notice it's broad trading range and past predictability... at least I know more about natural gas than coal! Besides, natural gas prices were pushing multi-year lows as cool weather and even some snow was hitting the US in early October. Another indicator I'm paying more attention to is the idea of pushing into a high with higher volume (Thanks Tom O'Brien). I got into Duke Energy because I thought I detected it there. They at least have a 4% yield, too. I also traded Safety Insurance for a quick buck when it hit it's trendline. My big gamble is Mothers Work again. Moving higher and higher on high volume, it looks tremendously overbought. But I just can't stay away. A $250M market cap, unloading debt... nevermind they've completely cornered their market, one which may rise and fall but never go away - in fact it should mathematically double every 20 years - and they get top dollar for every article of clothes they sell. I see a growing cash machine.
Oversold stocks are hard to come by with the market pusing 12,000, but I did see Molson Coors drop and bounce off it's supporting trend line below $65. We'll see how long it takes it to get to $75. Yum Brands conversely took off for about a day before returning to orbit. Until next time.
As a result, I've had time now to recollect myself. The balance of risk-reward is delicate, and patience for good entry and exit points can double the reward. Knowing more about a company's business than it's ticker symbol is imperative. Good companies will be on sale from time to time (and just as often be overvalued) but they will always eventually behave properly and correct themselves. I'm interested in undervalued, or oversold, devations from the norm. As such, I've also reviewed my technical analysis strategy.
Using it I've noted Tyson Chicken and Briggs & Stratton positioning for an upward move, although I have no position in either. I did reenter First Horizon, as I think that consolidation is coming to an end. Something about the high quality of their loans... an their 4.5% yield. I bought some EnCana here, as I couldn't help notice it's broad trading range and past predictability... at least I know more about natural gas than coal! Besides, natural gas prices were pushing multi-year lows as cool weather and even some snow was hitting the US in early October. Another indicator I'm paying more attention to is the idea of pushing into a high with higher volume (Thanks Tom O'Brien). I got into Duke Energy because I thought I detected it there. They at least have a 4% yield, too. I also traded Safety Insurance for a quick buck when it hit it's trendline. My big gamble is Mothers Work again. Moving higher and higher on high volume, it looks tremendously overbought. But I just can't stay away. A $250M market cap, unloading debt... nevermind they've completely cornered their market, one which may rise and fall but never go away - in fact it should mathematically double every 20 years - and they get top dollar for every article of clothes they sell. I see a growing cash machine.
Oversold stocks are hard to come by with the market pusing 12,000, but I did see Molson Coors drop and bounce off it's supporting trend line below $65. We'll see how long it takes it to get to $75. Yum Brands conversely took off for about a day before returning to orbit. Until next time.
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